The CAS project Stability and Change is hosting a workshop in the Turret Room at CAS.


For invited guests only.




10:00 - Nils Lid Hjort: Welcome and Introduction

10:10 - Johnathan Williams: Hidden Markov Model Applications for Conflict Data

10:55 - Bear Braumoeller: From Models to Processes - Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models of War

11:45 - Lunch

13:00 - Simone P. Von Der Maase: ConflictNet 1.0 - A Probabilistic Recurrent Unet for global Conflict Forecasting

13:50 - Nils Lid Hjort: From Processes to Models - A Few Sets of Ideas



10:00 - Nils Lid Hjort: Welcome Back: Re-cap of Previous Day

10:10 - Mihai Croicu: Forecasting Spatially Disaggregated Armed Conflict Using Rebel Group Data

10:55 - David Randahl: Using Markov Models to Predict Escalation and De-Escalating Violence - Some Initial Evidence and Paths Forward.

11:45 - Lunch

13:00 - CĂ©line Cunen & Gudmund Hermansen: The Flush Tank Model - Using Gamma Processes to Model Astrocyte Activation

13:25 - Catharina Stoltenberg: Time-to-Event for Dirichlet Processes

13:50 - Emil Aas Stoltenberg: Models and Inference for on–off Data via
Clipped Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes