Centre for Advanced Study

at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters

Stability and Change


Active 2022/2023 Social Sciences - Law


We propose to build a cross-disciplinary task force at CAS, comprising top international scholars from the two fields of statistics methodology and peace-and-conflict research. Core CAS Fellows will come from the statistics groups of UiO, from PRIO, and from our international network.

The aim is to delve deeper into the many quantitative sides of armed conflict, developing relevant statistical methods for testing stability, pin-pointing critical junctures when such have occurred, and to better understand the underlying mechanisms. Themes include better understanding of and finding explanations for the power-law tail behaviour of violence data; examining the 'waiting times' behaviour of times elapsed between conflicts; and modelling the processes leading from war to peace.


Affiliated researchers

  • Dennis Christensen - University of Oslo (UiO)
  • Steffen Grønneberg - Norwegian Business School (BI)
  • Gudmund Horn Hermansen - University of Oslo (UiO)
  • Aliaksandr Hubin - University of Oslo (UiO)
  • Per August Moen - University of Oslo (UiO)
  • Håvard Mokleiv Nygård - Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD)
  • Simon Polichinel von der Maase - Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
  • Emil Aas Stoltenberg - Norwegian Business School (BI)
  • Håvard Strand - University of Oslo (UiO)
  • Chandler Williams - Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Previous events


Group leader